Bulgaria will hold its European elections on 9 June, the same day its citizens will vote in national parliamentary elections. The decision to run the two votes concurrently comes as the country grapples with a prolonged political crisis, one that has seen six nationwide elections in just three years. 

Voters are clearly tired. Turnout has declined from 50 per cent in April 2021 to 40 per cent in April 2023. The June snap elections are a consequence of the instability of the last coalition government, formed of two centre-right parties: GERB, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, and We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB). The latter is an alliance of smaller right-wing parties, some with roots in the former anti-communist bloc and others established by leaders such as Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev. Initially designed to be a rotating government, the GERB–PP-DP coalition faced insurmountable challenges under the leadership of Nikolai Denkov. Tensions arose over the structure and future leadership of the government, thereby preventing the planned rotation and galvanising calls for the June vote. Political instability thus continues to plague Bulgaria, complicating governance and policy-making during a critical period for the nation.  

The fifth European elections since the admission of the country in the EU will meanwhile elect 17 representatives to the European Parliament. Preferential votes for individual candidates are taken into account if the number of votes they receive amounts to at least 15 per cent of the actual votes cast for the respective candidate list. Voting is not compulsory. 

The concurrent timing of national and European electoral campaigns has produced a blending of their primary messages, potentially muddling the distinct issues each election aims to address. The campaign for both elections is based on personal attacks rather than ideas. It is centred on the rivalry between leaders of the former coalition partners PP-DP and GERB. This fusion of campaign rhetoric is further complicated by voters’ historically poor understanding of European Union matters. 

The hoped-for potential for simultaneous national and European elections to boost voter turnout for the EU polls is unlikely to be realised. European elections have historically seen low turnout compared to national elections. If anything, pervasive election fatigue in Bulgaria is likely to exacerbate voter apathy in general. A recent poll by Alpha Research has predicted that turnout for national elections will once again be around 40 per cent, while the EU vote will see around 35 per cent, or 2.3 million people. 

European Parliament race 

As far as the European elections go, Bulgaria’s GERB party, part of the centre-right EPP group in the European Parliament, is the frontrunner, with 25 per cent support. That would translate to five MEP seats – down from six in 2019. Notably absent from GERB’s list is Mariya Gabriel, the former EU commissioner and deputy prime minister who served as vice-president of the EPP group in the European Parliament from 2014 to 2019. No official reason was given. She resigned from her job as EU commissioner in May 2023 in order to become prime minister. However, she was not appointed as prime minister because the agreed rotation of the government after the first nine months failed.  

The pro-European coalition PP-DB is in second place, polling at 18.5 per cent, equivalent to four MEP seats. However, the coalition’s representation will be divided between the EPP and Renew Europe groups. The coalition is a new player, and was not represented at the EU elections in 2019. 

Despite the recent addition to Bulgaria’s political scene of the pro-Russian far-right nationalist party Vazrazhdane, which is predicted to gain 14.8 per cent of the vote at the EU elections, the country has not seen the same degree of support for national-populist parties that other European nations have. While it’s true that over the years, several similar national-populist parties have captured votes, they have invariably lost support relatively quickly. These forces include ATAKA, led by a former journalist, and United Patriots, a coalition of small far-right players. Mainstream parties flirting with extreme rhetoric has prevented far-right actors from gathering wider electoral support.  

Other smaller parties are nibbling at the heels of the traditionally dominant ones. The DPS party, representing the Muslim minority of Bulgaria, has historically played an important role in influencing national policy, and is predicted to obtain 14.4 per cent at the EU elections. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), on the other hand, is dogged by internal tensions over its leadership, and has experienced a significant decline in support. It is projected to lose three of its five MEP seats. Prominent BSP figures, including former Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev, will not be on the party lists for the upcoming election. He has criticised BSP’s current leader, Kornelia Ninova, for her excessively nationalist rhetoric.  

Short-termism and propaganda 

In terms of party debates, their overall focus has shifted away from ideologies and towards personalities. Candidates’ individual traits and records have taken centre stage over their policy stances. Despite the blending of campaigns for national and European elections, a few EU-related topics managed to break through the noise, such as Bulgaria’s application for the eurozone, the Schengen process, and progress in the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan. Bulgaria became a Schengen member in March this year, but passport checks are still valid at land borders.  

European elections have historically seen low turnout compared to national elections. If anything, pervasive election fatigue in Bulgaria is likely to exacerbate voter apathy.

One of the key EU topics that did receive attention was the European Green Deal. Critics from various political factions voiced concerns over its feasibility and the potential economic impact on Bulgaria. Rossen Zhelyazkov, who leads the GERB list for the EU elections, has said: “Europe must review the Green Deal policy, redirect it to the development of a high-tech economy, but not at the expense of jobs.” This was echoed by PP-DB’s Kiril Petkov: “Back in 2021 we told the miners that we would fight to keep the mines open for as long as possible, but that they should be aware that the economic conditions in Europe are changing with the Green Deal”.  

According to Christian Vigenin, who leads the BSP list, “When there is a lack of common sense, when decisions in Brussels are made based on some ideological views that are not on reality, we end up with situations like the Green Deal. It is supposed to save the planet and our children’s future in 50 or 100 years, but it’s destroying our children’s future now because it is destroying small and medium-sized businesses and jobs, and making us uncompetitive.” 

In Bulgaria, the Green Deal is most often associated with the closure of coal plants in the central Bulgarian city of Stara Zagora, and the transition to clean sources of electricity. Over 10,000 people will lose their jobs due to the closure of the coal plants. More than 7,300 of these reside in Stara Zagora, while the remainder are spread across Radnevo, Galabovo, Nova Zagora, and elsewhere. The average age of these workers is 45 years; 27 per cent of them have a university degree. Many experts are concerned that closing the coal industry in Stara Zagora will lead to a severe social crisis. The coal industry contributes to local tax revenues that support essential sectors such as social services and education. The closure of mines will also significantly impact the region’s demographic profile, with many families likely to seek employment in Sofia or abroad. Among the possible solutions currently being discussed for Stara Zagora are investments in photovoltaics and green hydrogen electrolysers, and storage systems. But in the context of Bulgaria’s perpetual election campaign, policy-makers prefer to promise to save jobs now rather than worry about CO2 emissions reduction targets and long-term plans for a fair transition.